User:WinterRose/Morph Data

Set 1

• Running all records drom May 2011 to December 2012, for a total of 2197 entry points.
• Aggregating all levels into groups of 10 via rounding (304 goes to 300, 305 goes to 310 group)

+-------+-----------+-------------+----------+
| level | successes | total tries | chance   |
+-------+-----------+-------------+----------+
|   300 |        31 |         191 |  16.2304 |
|   310 |        14 |          82 |  17.0732 |
|   320 |        15 |          56 |  26.7857 |
|   330 |         4 |          23 |  17.3913 |
|   340 |         7 |          37 |  18.9189 |
|   350 |         3 |          39 |   7.6923 |
|   360 |        26 |          75 |  34.6667 |
|   370 |        16 |          62 |  25.8065 |
|   380 |        23 |          69 |  33.3333 |
|   390 |        11 |          46 |  23.9130 |
|   400 |        32 |          70 |  45.7143 |
|   410 |        19 |          67 |  28.3582 |
|   420 |        24 |          74 |  32.4324 |
|   430 |        26 |          66 |  39.3939 |
|   440 |        29 |          65 |  44.6154 |
|   450 |        24 |          61 |  39.3443 |
|   460 |        22 |          50 |  44.0000 |
|   470 |        21 |          59 |  35.5932 |
|   480 |        24 |          46 |  52.1739 |
|   490 |        13 |          25 |  52.0000 |
|   500 |        45 |          97 |  46.3918 |
|   510 |        30 |          63 |  47.6190 |
|   520 |        30 |          56 |  53.5714 |
|   530 |        17 |          32 |  53.1250 |
|   540 |        22 |          40 |  55.0000 |
|   550 |        18 |          35 |  51.4286 |
|   560 |        25 |          38 |  65.7895 |
|   570 |        11 |          20 |  55.0000 |
|   580 |        11 |          17 |  64.7059 |
|   590 |         8 |          16 |  50.0000 |
|   600 |        21 |          39 |  53.8462 |
|   610 |        13 |          19 |  68.4211 |
|   620 |        19 |          24 |  79.1667 |
|   630 |         7 |          15 |  46.6667 |
|   640 |         7 |          13 |  53.8462 |
|   650 |         6 |           7 |  85.7143 |
|   660 |        12 |          15 |  80.0000 |
|   670 |         8 |          17 |  47.0588 |
|   680 |         5 |           5 | 100.0000 |
|   690 |        10 |          11 |  90.9091 |
|   700 |        11 |          18 |  61.1111 |
|   710 |         5 |           6 |  83.3333 |
|   720 |         4 |           5 |  80.0000 |
|   730 |         4 |           6 |  66.6667 |
|   750 |         8 |          10 |  80.0000 |
|   760 |         3 |           5 |  60.0000 |
|   770 |         2 |           4 |  50.0000 |
|   780 |         8 |           9 |  88.8889 |
|   790 |         2 |           2 | 100.0000 |
|   800 |        10 |          11 |  90.9091 |
|   810 |         3 |           3 | 100.0000 |
|   820 |         7 |           7 | 100.0000 |
|   840 |         2 |           4 |  50.0000 |
|   850 |         2 |           2 | 100.0000 |
|   860 |         2 |           2 | 100.0000 |
|   870 |         2 |           2 | 100.0000 |
|   880 |         1 |           2 |  50.0000 |
|   890 |         1 |           1 | 100.0000 |
|   900 |         4 |           4 | 100.0000 |
|   910 |         3 |           4 |  75.0000 |
|   920 |         3 |           3 | 100.0000 |
|   930 |         2 |           3 |  66.6667 |
|   940 |         2 |           2 | 100.0000 |
|   950 |         3 |           3 | 100.0000 |
|   960 |         1 |           1 | 100.0000 |
|   970 |         2 |           2 | 100.0000 |
|   980 |         4 |           4 | 100.0000 |
|   990 |         3 |           3 | 100.0000 |
|  1000 |       227 |         227 | 100.0000 |
+-------+-----------+-------------+----------+

Conclusion: While 2200 points seems a lot, it's actually not, thus the huge variations.

Set 1 (more rounding)

• Increasing grain size to blocks of 20 (level=level/20, level=round(level), level=level*20)

+-------+-----------+-------------+----------+
| level | successes | total tries | chance   |
+-------+-----------+-------------+----------+
|   300 |        39 |         232 |  16.8103 |
|   320 |        22 |         109 |  20.1835 |
|   340 |        12 |          62 |  19.3548 |
|   360 |        32 |         128 |  25.0000 |
|   380 |        40 |         123 |  32.5203 |
|   400 |        48 |         134 |  35.8209 |
|   420 |        44 |         138 |  31.8841 |
|   440 |        54 |         125 |  43.2000 |
|   460 |        47 |         114 |  41.2281 |
|   480 |        42 |          91 |  46.1538 |
|   500 |        71 |         141 |  50.3546 |
|   520 |        47 |         102 |  46.0784 |
|   540 |        40 |          69 |  57.9710 |
|   560 |        39 |          68 |  57.3529 |
|   580 |        19 |          32 |  59.3750 |
|   600 |        34 |          60 |  56.6667 |
|   620 |        28 |          37 |  75.6757 |
|   640 |        14 |          27 |  51.8519 |
|   660 |        16 |          27 |  59.2593 |
|   680 |        17 |          19 |  89.4737 |
|   700 |        17 |          25 |  68.0000 |
|   720 |        10 |          13 |  76.9231 |
|   740 |         4 |           5 |  80.0000 |
|   760 |         9 |          13 |  69.2308 |
|   780 |        11 |          13 |  84.6154 |
|   800 |        13 |          14 |  92.8571 |
|   820 |         7 |           7 | 100.0000 |
|   840 |         3 |           5 |  60.0000 |
|   860 |         5 |           5 | 100.0000 |
|   880 |         1 |           2 |  50.0000 |
|   900 |         5 |           5 | 100.0000 |
|   920 |         7 |           8 |  87.5000 |
|   940 |         5 |           6 |  83.3333 |
|   960 |         2 |           2 | 100.0000 |
|   980 |         6 |           6 | 100.0000 |
|  1000 |       230 |         230 | 100.0000 |
+-------+-----------+-------------+----------+

Conclusion: A dataset of 10k would really be more useful. Oh well.